Background: Gastric cancer is generally thought to arise through a series of gastric mucosal changes, but the determinants of the precancerous lesions are not well understood. To identify such determinants, we launched a follow-up study in 1989–1990 among 3433 adults in Linqu County, China, a region with very high rates of gastric cancer. Methods: Data on cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, and other characteristics of the participants were obtained by interview in 1989–1990, when an initial endoscopy was taken. At study entry, antibodies to Helicobacter pylori were assayed in 2646 adults (77% of people screened), and levels of serum micronutrients were measured in approximately 450 adults. Follow-up endoscopic and histopathologic examinations were conducted in 1994. Antibodies to H. pylori, levels of serum micronutrients, and other baseline characteristics were compared between subjects whose condition showed progression to dysplasia or gastric cancer from study entry to 1994 and subjects with no change or with regression of their lesions over the same time frame. All P values are two-sided. Results: The presence of H. pylori at baseline was associated with an increased risk of progression to dysplasia or gastric cancer (odds ratio [OR] = 1.8; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2–2.6). The risk of progression to dysplasia or gastric cancer also was moderately increased with the number of years of cigarette smoking. In contrast, the risk of progression was decreased by 80% (OR = 0.2; 95% CI = 0.1–0.7) among subjects with baseline ascorbic acid levels in the highest tertile compared with those in the lowest tertile, and there was a slightly elevated risk in those individuals with higher levels of α-tocopherol. Conclusions: H. pylori infection, cigarette smoking, and low levels of dietary vitamin C may contribute to the progression of precancerous lesions to gastric cancer in this high-risk population.
